MLB Attendance 2012

As we roared through a quarter of the Major League Baseball season, did anyone stop and take a look at the attendance numbers? Calling them interesting would be an understatement. Major League Baseball attendance as a whole is up 6% from this point last season, which was probably helped greatly by a record breaking first weekend of interleague play.

Conventional wisdom says that if a team is winning, they are drawing fans. If you have read any book about Bill Veeck, then you would know that the preceding statement is bunk (not Bunk Moreland from The Wire). Conventional wisdom also says that if you build it, they will come. Ok well maybe that was just Field of Dreams, but whoever did say it never really did specify how many were coming. Exactly 30 Major League ball clubs built it, but the majority of teams don’t have enough people coming to fill their stadiums. Let’s take a deeper look into this attendance conundrum.

The bad are good                                                             

First, look at the standings. Then, look at the attendance figures. Now, back at the standings. And, back again to the attendance figures. If your head isn’t spinning from looking back and forth, then chances are that your head is spinning from the sheer disconnect between the two. Check out the bottom six in attendance:

Attendance Rank	Team	Average Attendance
25	Baltimore Orioles	22.361
26	Chicago White Sox	20,281
27	Tampa Bay Rays	20,162
28	Seattle Mariners	19,916
29	Oakland Athletics	18,861
30	Cleveland Indians	15,838

 Ok, now consult your standings for these six teams:

Attendance Rank	Team	Division Standing
25	Baltimore Orioles	1 – AL East
26	Chicago White Sox	2 – AL Central
27	Tampa Bay Rays	2 – AL East
28	Seattle Mariners	3 – AL West
29	Oakland Athletics	2 – AL West
30	Cleveland Indians	1 – AL Central

Essentially, only two of these teams deserve to be in the bottom six, in my opinion. The Mariners deserve to be in the bottom six because they are not very good per se. I mean Kevin Millwood is in their starting rotation, enough said. The Oakland Athletics deserve to be in the bottom six as well. I do recognize that they are in second place in the AL West and playing .500 ball, but they have already repeatedly expressed interest in moving to San Jose which makes it tough to draw fans when you have disowned the ones that you had (but that’s for another post).

We know that the Rays simply have issues drawing fans so they are in the process of attempting the Field of Dreams wisdom in building a new ballpark. I’ll only give them a half pass though considering they have been playing top-of-the-league caliber baseball for the past handful of seasons.

The lowly Cubbies in the north side are top ten in attendance despite having the worst record in the majors (as of 5/23), so why can’t the south side rival White Sox draw any fans? They are second place in the AL Central. Maybe they are solely looking at wins and losses? Maybe they miss Ozzie?

The biggest issues with the bottom six are the two first place teams, the Indians and the Orioles. I think the problem that I have with it personally is the fact that these two teams are two once-proud organizations. These aren’t teams that haven’t won in the history of their franchise like the Rays. Both teams have a young core group of players, you know, like those prospects that the team tries to sell you on for the future. Well the future is now for the Indians and the Orioles, so if they want to continue this on-field success, then they better start bringing some revenue through those turnstiles.

The good are bad

For the sake of the top 11, I will just pick out the five that I want to highlight the most. Check it:

Attendance Rank	Team	Average Attendance
1	Philadelphia Phillies	44,981
5	New York Yankees	40,972
7	Boston Red Sox	37,564
8	Chicago Cubs	37,285
11	Los Angeles Angels	33,581

In a normal season you wouldn’t even do a double take at this point; however, it is 2012, and these teams are not performing to what the fans have come to expect. Check out the standings:

Attendance Rank	Team	Division Standing
1	Philadelphia Phillies	5 (last) – NL East
5	New York Yankees	4 – AL East
7	Boston Red Sox	5 (last) – AL East
8	Chicago Cubs	6 (last) – NL Central
11	Los Angeles Angels	4 (last) – AL West

Of course I am not condoning fans to become fair weather fans and only attend games when the team is performing well. Conversely, I’m not telling fans to not attend games when the team is performing poorly. All I’m asking for is some kind of explanation, and I’m going to attempt to work out some rational thought here.

Why does this happen?

Let’s start with the teams who are performing well at the turnstiles and poorly on the field because I think they are a little easier to understand. The Phillies, Yankees, and Red Sox have been the elite teams in Major League Baseball over the past half dozen or so seasons. The continued success inherently gives off a scent of hope and strong brand association which could be a simple explanation to why they are pulling in such large attendance numbers. It isn’t even as if all three of these teams came in with high expectations and are simply in a beginning stretch of vast underachievement. The Phillies, who are drawing the most fans in baseball, came into the season with the most pessimism they have seen since maybe 2007.

The Cubs are an interesting case study in that they are a strong brand that doesn’t win ever. In fact, their place in baseball as perpetual losers has actually been what has built their brand so strong. I know, it is pretty crazy. Becoming a perpetual loser has allowed the team to develop a brand of perpetual hope which, along with one of the most historic ballparks in the game, has built a strong fan base and attendance numbers.

We all know why the Angels have able to draw so well at the box office. It starts with poo and it ends with holes. Although it is tough to build a lasting attendance affect through free agent signings, all rules of conventional wisdom go out the window when you sign a surefire Hall of Fame slugger with 10 years (maybe) left in his career.

The tough part is to explain why the teams that are performing so poorly at the turnstiles and well on the field. Typically teams that know they are bad try to sell tickets by talking up the future (ie. prospects). We already know why the Mariners, Rays and Athletics are drawing so poorly, but the other four have big time, talented prospects that are now helping at a major league level. It kind of makes your head spin in circles when you really think about it.

The Orioles have the second best record in all of baseball and they have a big time manager. The team is as homegrown as a major league ball club gets, yet they aren’t drawing the crowds. To make it even more mind-boggling for the Orioles, this season is the 20 year anniversary of Camden Yards, which they have been thoroughly promoting.

To Sum It Up

I’m beginning to wonder if on-field performance for a single season really even means that much. If the success isn’t going to be sustained and if the team is even in the realm of being labeled a pretender, then the fans simply aren’t going to show up. To draw the big crowds, you need to build a lasting brand. One that is strong enough to endure a losing season or two. If teams understood this a bit better, then I think a lot of teams would shy away from the “go for it all in one season” mentality. That risk is a calculated one that only the top prestige teams are afforded the luxury of taking because they know the fans will be back next year.

So some advice for the teams that have prospects thriving in the majors: make it last and make it count. Do not go selling them off to the bigger teams the second things look to be going downhill. Build a product on the field that will last. “If you build (a lasting on the field product), they will come.” This mentality will allow you a season in the cellar every once in a while.

Do you think that the fans in Cleveland and Baltimore will start to come out if the team keeps winning this season?

-- Attendance figures and standings through 5/23 were compiled with information from bizofbaseball.com, espn.com, and fangraphs.com.